MACROECONOMICS 宏观经济学

内容提要 作者写作本书的目的在于和读者分享他本人过去20年在宏观经济 学研究工作中的收获，并帮助读者建立起关于宏观经济学的观念和意 识。和其他宏观经济学教科书相比，本书包含了一些其他教科书未论 及的问题，如预期理论、现代经济学的开放性等。而且本书经常在多 个层面上进行理论和实际的比较，引用了较多熔深度和趣味性于一炉 的实例。 作者以一个重要模型贯穿全书，其核心是商品市场、金融市场和 劳动市场的均衡条件。本书首先介绍IS－LM短期经济模型，讨论商品 市场和金融市场的均衡，并把对经济的预期在宏观经济决策方面的作 用和增强现代经济开放性的重要性作为其中的两个主题。接着在中长 期理论中，介绍劳动市场均衡、总供给与总需求模型，分析高失业率 和高通货膨胀率时期的特点，以及经济增长中资本积累和技术进步的 作用。最后，读者可用前面章节中学到的方法去分析当今世界最重要 的几个经济问题，回顾宏观经济学在过去50年中的演进过程，宏观 经济政策的作用及其所受到的限制，以及当前的研究方向。 本书既可作为经济管理专业本科生和研究生的教学用书，也可供 其他经济工作者参考。

PREFACE PART ONE - INTRODUCTION 1 CHAPTER 1 - A TOUR OF THE WORLD 1 -1 WHAT IS MACROECONOMICS? The Simplifications of Macroeconomics 1 Why Macroeconomists Sometimes Disagree 1-2 LOOKING AT THE WORLD The United States ?The European Union ?Japan 11 1-3 LOOKINGAHEAD CHAPTER 2 - A TOUR OF THE BOOK 2-1 AGGREGATE OUTPUT GDP, Value Added, and Income ? Nominal and Real GDP 2-2 THE OTHER MAJOR MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES The Unemployment Rate ?The Inflation Rate ?Budget Deficits and Trade Deficits 2-3 A ROAD MAP PART TWO - THE BASICS CHAPTER 3 - TME GOODS MARKET 3-1 THE COMPOSITION OF GDP 3-2 THE DETERMINATION OF DEMAND Consumption (C) ?Investment (I) ?Government Spending (G) 3-3 THE DETERMINATION OF EQUILIBRIUM OUTPUT The Algebra ?A Graph ?In Words 3-4 INVESTMENT EQUALS SAVING: AN ALTERNATIVE WAY OF THINKING ABOUT GOODS-MARKET EQUILIBRIUM 3-5 THE PARADOX OF SAVING 3-6 IS THE GOVERNMENT REALLY OMNIPOTENT? A WARNING CHAPTER 4 - THE GOODS MARKET: DYNAMICS 4-1 PRODUCTION, SALES, AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Dividing Time ?Production and Sales ?Equilibrium in the Goods Market Revisited ?The Dynamic Effects of an Increase in Government Spending ?Using a Graph 4-2 GOING EMPIRICAL Estimating the Marginal Propensity to Consume ?Allowing for Lags ? Correlation Versus Causality 4-3 SlMULATING THE ESTIMATED MODEL A-A CONCLUSIONS CHAPTER 5 - FlNANCIAL MARKETS 5-1 MONEY VERSUS BONDS The Basic Choice ?The Demand for Money ?The Demand for Bonds ?Money Demand and the Interest Rate: The Evidence 5-2 THE DETERMINATION OF THE INTEREST RATE: 1 Money Demand, Money Supply, and the Equilibrium Interest Rate ?Monetary Policy and Open Market Operations ? Monetary Policy and the Interest Rate 5-3 THE DETERMINATION OF THE INTEREST RATE: 11 The Role of Banks ?The Determination of the Money Supply ?The Effects of an Open Market Operation ? Conclusions: Money Demand and Money Supply CHAPTER 6 - GOODS AND FlNANCIAL MARKETS: THE IS-LM 6-1 THE GOODS MARKET AND THE IS RELATION Investment, Sales, and the Interest Rate ?The IS Curve ?Shifts in the IS Curve 6-2 FlNANCIAL MARKETS AND THE LM RELATION Real Money, Real Income, and the Interest Rate ?The LM Curve ?Shifts in the LM Curve 6-3 THE IS-LM MODEL: EXERCISES Fiscal Policy, Activity, and the Interest Rate ?Mohetary Policy, Activity, and the Interest Rate ?Using a Policy Mix 6-4 ADDING DYNAMICS 6-5 DOES THE IS-LM MODEL ACTUALLY CAPTURE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE ECONOMY? PART THREE - EXPECTATIONS CHAPTER 7 - EXPECTATIONS: THE BASIC TOOLS 7-1 NOMINAL VERSUS REAL INTEREST RATES Computing the Real Interest Rate ? Nominal and Rfeal Interest Rates in the United States Since 1978 7-2 EXPECTED PRESENT DlSCOUNTED VALUES Computing Expected Present Discounted Values ?Applications ?Nominal Versus Real Interest Rates, and Present Values 7-3 NOMINAL AND REAL INTEREST RATES, AND THE IS-LM MODEL APPENDIX: DERIVING THE PRESENT DlSCOUNTED VALUE USING REAL OR NOMINAL INTEREST RATES CHAPTER 8 - EXPECTATIONS, CONSUMPTION, AND INVESTMENT 8-1 CONSUMPTION The Very Foresighted Consumer ?An Example ?Toward a More Realistic Description ?Putting Things Together: Current Income, Expectations, and Consumption 8-2 INVESTMENT Investment and Expectations ofProfit ?A Convenient Special Case ? Current Versus Expected Profit ? Profit and Sales 8-3 THE VOLATILITY OF CONSUMPTION AND INVESTMENT APPENDIX: DERIVATION OF THE EXPECTED PRESENT VALUE OF PROFITS WHEN FUTURE PROFITS AND INTEREST RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE SAME AS TODAY CHAPTER 9 - FlNANCIAL MARKETS AND EXPECTATIONS 9-1 BONDPRICESANDTHEYIELDCURVE Bond Prices as Present Values ? Arbitrage and Bond Prices ?From Bond Prices to Bond Yields ?The Yield Curve and Economic Activity 9-2 THE STOCK MARKET AND MOVEMENTS IN STOCK PRICES Stock Prices as Present Values ?The Stock Market and Economic Activity 9-3 BUBBLES, FADS, AND STOCK PRICES APPENDIX: ARBITRAGEAND STOCK PRICES 185 CHAPTER 10- EXPECTATIONS, POLICY, AND OUTPUT 10-1 EXPECTATIONS AND DECISIONS: TAKING STOCK Expectations and the IS Relation ? The LM Relation Revisited 10-2 A FlRST EXERCISE: MONETARY POLICY, EXPECTATIONS, AND OUTPUT 10-3 DEFICIT REDUCTION, EXPECTATIONS, AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 10-4 THE CLINTON DEFICIT REDUCTION PACKAGE The Design of a Program ?The Outcome 10-5 ON TO THE OPEN ECONOMY PART FOUR - OPENNESS CHAPTER 1 1 - OPENNESS IN GOODS AND FlNANCIAL MARKETS 11-1 OPENNESS IN GOODS MARKETS Nominal Exchange Rates ?Real Exchange Rates 11-2 OPENNESS IN FlNANCIAL MARKETS The Balance of Payments ?The Choice Between Domestic and Foreign Assets 11-3 CONCLUSIONS AND A LOOK AHEAD CHAPTER 12 - THE GOODS MARKET IN AN OPEN ECONOMY 12-1 THE IS RELATION IN THE OPEN ECONOMY The Demand for Domestic Goods ? The Determinants of the Demand for Domestic Goods 12-2 EQUILIBRIUM OUTPUT AND THE TRADE BALANCE 12-3 INCREASES IN DEMAND, DOMESTIC OR FOREIGN Increases in Government Spending ? Increases in Foreign Demand ? Games That Countries Play 12-4 DEPRECIATION, THE TRADE BALANCE, AND OUTPUT Depreciation and the Trade Balance: The Marshall-Lerner Condition ?The Effects of a Depreciation ? Combining Exchange-Rate and Fiscal Policies 12-5 LOOKING AT DYNAMICS: THE J-CURVE 12-6 SAVING,INVESTMENT, AND TRADE DEFICITS APPENDIX: DERIVATION OF THE MARSHALL- LERNER CONDITION CHAPTER 13 - OUTPLJT, THE INTEREST RATE, AND THE EXCHANGE RATE 13-1 EQUILIBRIUM IN THE GOODS MARKET 13-2 EQUILIBRIUM IN FlNANCIAL MARKETS Money Versus Bonds ?Domestic Bonds Versus Foreign Bonds 13-3 PUTTING GOODS AND FlNANCIAL MARKETS TOGETHER 13-4 THE EFFECTS OF POLICY IN AN OPEN ECONOMY The Effects of Fiscal Policy in an Open Economy ?The Effects of Monetary Policy in an Open Economy 13-5 FlXED EXCHANGE RATES Pegs, Crawling Pegs, Bands, and the EMS ?Pegging the Exchange Rate, and Monetary Control ?Fiscal Policy Under Fixed Exchange Rates APPENDIX: FlXED EXCHANGE RATES, INTEREST RATES, AND CAPITAL MOBILITY CHAPTER 14 - EXPECTATIONS, EXCHANGE-RATE MOVEMENTS, AND EXCHANGE-RATE CRISES 14-1 THE DETERMINANTS OF THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE Real Interest Rates and the Real Exchange Rate ?Long-Term Real Interest Rates and the Real Exchange Rate ?The Real Exchange Rate, Trade, and Interest Rate Differentials 14-2 THE DANCE OF THE DOLLAR IN THE 1980s 14-3 THE APPRECIATION OF THE YEN IN THE 1990s 14-4 EXCHANGE RATES, MONETARY POLICY, AND NEWS Monetary Policy, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates Policy and Expectations 14-5 FlXED EXCHANGE RATES AND EXCHANGE-RATE CRISES Crises in the European Monetary System APPENDIX: FROM NOMINAL TO REAL INTEREST PARITY PART FIVE - THE SUPPLY SIDE CHAPTER 15 - THE LABOR MARKET 15-1 A TOUR OF THE LABOR MARKET The Large Flows of Workers ? Differences Across Workers ? Movements in Unemployment 15-2 WAGE DETERMINATION Bargaining ?Efficiency Wages ? Wages and Unemployment 15-3 PRICE DETERMINATION 15-4 THE NATURAL RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT The Wage-Setting Relation ?The Price-Setting Relation ?Equilibrium Real Wages, Employment, and Unemployment ?From Unemployment to Output 15-5 WHERE WE GO FROM HERE APPENDTX: WAGE- AND PRICE-SETTING RELATIONS VERSUS LABOR SUPPLY AND LABOR DEMAND CHAPTER 16 - PLITTING ALL MARKETS TOGETHER 16-1 AGGREGATE SUPPLY The Derivation of the Aggregate Supply Relation ?The Aggregate Supply Relation and the Natural Level of Output 16-2 16-3 16-4 AGGREGATE DEMAND MOVEMENTS IN OUTPUT AND PRICES THE EFFECTS OF A MONETARY EXPANSION The Dynamics of Adjustment ? Looking Behind the Scene ?The Neutrality of Money 16-5 A DECREASE IN THE BUIDGET DEFICIT The Budget Deficit, Output, and the Interest Rate ?Budget Deficits, Output, and Investment 16-6 MOVEMENTS IN THE PRICE OF OlL Effects on the Natural Rate of Unemployment ?The Dynarnics of Adjustment 16-7 CONCLUSIONS The Short Run Versus the Long Run ?Shocks and Propagation Mechanisms ?Output, Unemployment, and Inflation CHAPTER 17 - THE PHILLIPS CURVE 17-1 INFLATION, EXPECTED INFLATION, AND UNEMPLOYMENT 17-2 THE PHILLIPS CURVE The Early Incarnation ?Mutations ?Back to the Natural Rate of Unemployment 17-3 A SUMMARY AND MANY WARNINGS The Inflation Process and the Phillips Curve ?Differences in the Natural Rate Across Countries ?Variations in Ihe Natural Rate over Time ?The Limits of Our Understanding APPENOIX: FROM THE. AGGREGATE SUPPLY RELATION TO THE PHILLIPS CURVE CHAPTER 18- INFLATION, DlSINFLATION, AND UNEMPLOYMENT 18-1 INFLATION, OUTPUT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT The Phillips Curve: Unemployment and the Change in Inflation ?Okun's Law: Output Growth and Changes in Unemployment ?The Aggregate Demand Relation: Output Growth, Money Growth, and Inflation 18-2 THELONGRUN 18-3 DlSINFLATION: THE ISSUES A First Pass ?Expectations and Credibility: The Lucas Critique ? Nominal Rigidities and Contracts 18-4 THE U.S. DISINFLATION, 1979-1985 CHAPTER 19 - INFLATION, INTEREST RATES, AND EXCHANGE RATES 19-1 MONEY GROWTH, INFLATION, AND INTEREST RATES Real and Nominal Interest Rates ? The Short Run ?The Long Run ?Dynamics ?Evidence on the Fisher Hypothesis 19-2 FlXED EXCHANGE RATES AND DEVALLJATIONS Aggregate Demand Under Fixed Exchange Rates ?Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply ?What Devaluations Can Do ?Whether and When to Devalue PART SIX - PATHOLOGIES CHAPTER 20 - PATHOLOGIES 1: HlGH U N EM PLOYMENT 20-1 THEGREAT DEPRESSION The Fall in Spending ?The Contraction in Nominal Money ?The Adverse Eftects of Deflation ?Thc Recovery 20-2 UNEMPLOYMENT IN EUROPE Labor Market Rigidities ?Hysteresis 20-3 CONCLUSIONS CHAPTER 21 - PATHOLOGIES 11: HlGH INFLATION 21-1 BUDGET DEFICITS AND MONEY CREATION 21-2 INFLATION AND REAL MONEY BALANCES 21-3 DEFICITS, SEIGNORAGE, AND INFLATION The Case of Constant Money Growth ? Dynamics and Increasing Inflation ? Hyperinflations and Economic Activity 21-4 HOW Do HYPERINFLATIONS END? The Elements of a Stabilization Program ?Can Stabilization Programs Fail? ?The Costs of Stabilization 21-5 CONCLUSIONS PART SEVEN - THE LONG RUN CHAPTER 22 - THK FACTS OF GROWTH 22-1 GROWTH IN RlCH COUNTRIES SlNCE 1950 ? 22-2 A BROADER LOOK ACROSS TlME AND SPACE Looking Across Two Millennia ? Looking Across Countries 22-3 THINKING ABOUT GROWTH: A PRIMER The Aggregate Production Function ? The Sources of Growth CHAPTER 23 - SAVING, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, AND OUTPUT 23-1 INTERACTIONS BETWEEN OUTPUT AND CAPITAL The Effects of Capital on Output ? The Effects of Output on Capital Accumulation 23-2 IMPLICATIONS OF ALTERNATIVE SAVING RATES Dynamics of Capital and Output ? Steady-State Capital and Output ? The Saving Rate and Output ?The Saving Rate and the Golden Rule 23-3 GETTING A SENSE OF MAGNITUDES 23-4 PHYSICAL VERSUS HUMAN CAPITAL Extending the Production Function ? Human Capital, Physical Capital, and Output ?Endogenous Growth CHAPTER 24 - TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS AND GROWTH 24-1 THE DETERMINANTS OF TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS R&D Spending Decisions ?R&D, Ideas, and Patent Laws ?R&D Spending and Technological Progress 2-4-2 TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS AND THE PRODUCTION FUNCTION 24-3 TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS AND THE RATE OF GROWTH Interactions Between Output and Capital ?Dynamics of Capital and Output ?The Effects of the Saving Rate 24-4 THE FACTS OF GROWTH REVISITED Capital Accumulation Versus Technological Progress ?Why Has Technological Progress Slowed Since the Mid-1970s? 24-5 EPILOGUE: THE SECRETS OF GROWTH APPENDIX: CONSTRUCTING A MEASURE OF TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS PART EIGHT - CHANGE AND TRANSITION 509 CHAPTER 25 - TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES 25-1 PRODUCTIVITY, OUTPUT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE SHORT RUN 511 Technological Progress, Aggregate Supply, and Aggregate Demand ?The Empirical Evidence 25-2 PRODUCTIVITY AND THE NATURAL RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT Price and Wage Setting Revisited ? The Natural Rate of Unemployment ? The Empirical Evidence 25-3 TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS AND DlSTRIBUTION EFFECTS The Increase in Wage Inequality ?The Causes of Increased Wage Inequality CHAPTER 26 - TRANSITION IN EASTERN KUROPE 26-1 AN OVERVIEW 26-2 ECONOMIC GROWTH UNDER CENTRAL PLANNING 26-3 EXPLAINING THE DECLINE IN OUTPUT Measurement, Stabilization, and Structural Change ?Shifts in Relative Demand and Aggregate Employment ? Transition and the Decrease in Employment 26-4 SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE A Scenario of Sustained Transition and Growth ?The Dangers Ahead PART NINE - POLICY CHAPTER 27 - SHOULD POLICY MAKERS BE RESTRAINED? 27-1 UNCERTAINTY AND POLICY How Much Do Macroeconomists Actually Know? ?Should LJncertainty Lead Policy Makers to Do Less? ? Uncertainty and Restraints on Policy Makers 27-2 EXPECTATIONS AND POLICY Hijackings and Negotiations ? Inflation and Unemployment Revisited 554 ?Establishing Credibility ?Time Consistency and Restraints on Policy Makers 27-3 POLITICS AND POLICY Games Between Policy Makers and Voters 559 ?Games Between Policy Makers ?Back to the Balanced-Budget Amendment CHAPTER 28 - MONETARY POLICY: A SUMMING UP 28-1 TTHE OPTIMAL INFLATION RATE The Costs of Inflation ?The Benefits of Inflation ?The Optimal Inflation Rate: The Current Debate 28-2 MONEY VERSUS LlQUIDlTY Money and Other Liquid Assets. ?The Demand for Money Revisited ? Implications for Monetary Policy THE FED IN ACTION The Fed's Mandate ?The Organization of the Fed ?The Instruments of Monetarv Policy ?The Current Versus Future Taxes ?Debt and Primary Surpluscs ?The Evolution of the Debt-to-GDP Ratio 29-2 FOUR ISSUES IN FlSCAL POLICY Ricardian Equivalence ?Defidts. Output Stabilization, and the Cyclically Adjusted Deficit ?Wars and Deficits ?The Dangers of Very High Deht 29-3 THEU.S. BUDGETDEFICIT PART TEN - EPILOGUE CHAPTER 30 - THE STORY OF MACROECONOM 1 CS 30-1 KEYNES AND THE GREAT DEPRESSION 30-2 THE NEOCLASSICAL SYNTHESIS Progress on All Fronts ?Keynesians Versus Monetarists 30-3 THE RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS CRITIQUE The Three Implications of Rational Expectations ?The Integration of Rational Expectations 30-4 CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS